Market Timing

As we all know, recent developments have reinvigorated interest in the climate sector. This is a highly volatile segment of the political market, but if timed correctly can yield the active blogger handsome profits. A few examples follow.

First, let's consider a popular blue chip based in New York which measures surface station data. Ticker symbol GISS:

Clearly, a perfect channel trading oportunity presented itself last year, and wise carbonists went short back then. A number of conservative bloggers and pundits did well to dismiss Al Gore as an "alarmist" and to sow doubt and suspicion on global temperature measurements when Buffalo experienced another cold day. Now, however, conditions have changed and it's time to go long climate change again. A drop this precipitous only comes around rarely and must be acted on with a lightening-fast reversal: the data are no longer suspicious, they now wipe out a century's worth of climate change.

Bottom Line: Things can change quickly in this market. If temperatures start rising 30% or more again this spring, it's best to cash out and no longer link to sites following global temperatures. Stick to anecdotal "it snowed today" references.

Next, we turn our attention to an exciting microcap based in Illinois, which for years has been following polar ice cap cycles, but has recently noted a downturn. Ticker symbol CRYO:

The strategy for CRYO is somewhat different, yet related for active bloggers. Last year, astute observers did well to go long: a lack of arctic sea ice meant open shipping lanes! Unimagined oportunities for trade! And the bears? A one-time write-off due to hunting restrictions made their populations look healthy.

Now, however, the ice has re-frozen. Time to short climate change again! But watch out, we can already notice a downward trend. This should be maximal around September, so there should still be enough time to get out, but the smart bloggers have already left this sinking ship.

Bottom Line: Get out while the gettin's good!